The observations for the validation were taken from 2015-01-02 00:00:00 to 2023-12-30 23:00:00.
Remember that we have on a daily scale the variables
sfcWind, tas, pr,
tasmax, tasmin and psl and in a
monthly scale clt, rsdt,rsds as a
predictors. We also have the month , hour, sun’s elevation & azimuth
and the daily daylight amount in seconds as a predictors too.
| Metric | xgboost | cnn | naive | lstm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mae | 0.397 | 0.375 | 0.421 | 0.378 |
| cor | 0.921 | 0.934 | 0.911 | 0.929 |
| ratio_of_sd | 0.907 | 0.976 | 0.913 | 0.956 |
| KGE | 0.878 | 0.918 | 0.876 | 0.919 |
| amplitude_mae | 0.851 | 0.654 | 0.819 | 0.675 |
| maximum_difference | 5.305 | 4.762 | 5.403 | 4.779 |
| sign_correlation | 0.698 | 0.686 | 0.706 | 0.714 |
| extreme_correlation | 0.595 | 0.652 | 0.595 | 0.607 |
| qqplot_mae | 0.101 | 0.084 | 0.099 | 0.059 |
| acf_mae | 0.089 | 0.058 | 0.084 | 0.043 |
| extremogram_mae | 0.052 | 0.033 | 0.056 | 0.027 |
Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail
extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at
the same time. We are using quant = .97