The observations for the validation were taken from 2015-01-02 00:00:00 to 2023-12-30 23:00:00.

Remember that we have on a daily scale the variables sfcWind, tas, pr, tasmax, tasmin and psl and in a monthly scale clt, rsdt,rsds as a predictors. We also have the month , hour, sun’s elevation & azimuth and the daily daylight amount in seconds as a predictors too.

Metric xgboost cnn naive lstm
mae 0.397 0.375 0.421 0.378
cor 0.921 0.934 0.911 0.929
ratio_of_sd 0.907 0.976 0.913 0.956
KGE 0.878 0.918 0.876 0.919
amplitude_mae 0.851 0.654 0.819 0.675
maximum_difference 5.305 4.762 5.403 4.779
sign_correlation 0.698 0.686 0.706 0.714
extreme_correlation 0.595 0.652 0.595 0.607
qqplot_mae 0.101 0.084 0.099 0.059
acf_mae 0.089 0.058 0.084 0.043
extremogram_mae 0.052 0.033 0.056 0.027

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97